Coal must be phased out seven times faster than is now happening, deforestation must be reduced four times faster, and public transport around the world built out six times faster than at present, if the world is to avoid the worst impacts of climate breakdown, new research has found.
Countries are falling behind on almost every policy required to cut greenhouse gas emissions, despite progress on renewable energy and the uptake of electric vehicles.
This failure makes the prospect of holding global temperatures to 1.5C above preindustrial levels even more remote, according to the State of Climate Action 2023 report. The authors advise that world needs to:
Retire about 240 average-sized coal-fired power plants a year, every year between now and 2030.
Construct the equivalent of three New Yorks’ worth of public transport systems in cities around the world each year this decade.
Halt deforestation, which is happening to an area the size of 15 football pitches every minute, this decade.
Increase the rate of growth of solar and wind power from its current high of 14% a year to 24% a year.
Cut meat consumption from ruminants such as cows and sheep to about two servings a week in the US, Europe and other high-consuming countries by 2030.
The prospect of staying within 1.5C will slip away altogether without drastic action, the authors warned. Sophie Boehm, research associate at the World Resources Institute and lead author of the report, said: “Global efforts to limit warming to 1.5C are lacklustre at best. Despite decades of dire warnings and wake-up calls, our leaders have largely failed to mobilise climate action anywhere near the pace and scale needed. Such delays leave us with very few routes to secure a livable future for all.”
She added: “There’s no time left to tinker at the edges. Instead, we need immediate, transformational changes across every single sector this decade.”
Public funding of fossil fuels continues, despite countries’ commitments made two years ago in Glasgow at Cop26, to limit global heating to 1.5C above preindustrial levels. Many countries are also still expanding their fossil fuel production: for instance, in the UK, the government last week announced new annual licensing rounds for exploration projects in the North Sea.
Countries including the UK are also increasing subsidies and tax breaks for fossil fuels. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, government financing for fossil fuels increased sharply: subsidies almost doubled from 2020 rates, to reach the highest levels seen in nearly a decade, according to the report.
The State of Climate Action 2023 report, published on Tuesday and compiled by six climate thinktanks, examined all aspects of climate policy from governments across the world. Although other recent studies have found a rapid acceleration of the uptake of green technology around the world, including the expansion of renewable energy, the report found few bright spots.
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Sales of electric vehicles are booming, having more than tripled since 2020. But that is the only measure of the 42 indicators studied that was found to be progressing at the rate needed to cut emissions by nearly half this decade compared with 1990 levels, which is required to give the world a chance of staying within the 1.5C limit.
According to the International Energy Agency, if all countries were to fulfil the pledges they have made to reduce carbon, global heating would reach about 1.7C above preindustrial temperatures. But this relies on countries implementing policies rather than simply stating goals, and the State of Climate Action report shows that countries have so far failed to come forward with the policy measures necessary to meet their goals, and to implement fully policies that they do have.
Razan Al Mubarak, the UN high level champion on climate change, and part of the United Arab Emirates team that will host the Cop28 summit in Dubai later this month, called on all countries to re-examine their policies. “World leaders must recognise the insufficient progress to date and chart a path forward that builds on the successes we are seeing. This moment should serve as a springboard for accelerated actions,” she said.
