Australia has fallen behind China in the global race to tackle super-polluting methane emissions, following the announcement from Beijing last week, ahead of this month’s COP 28 UN climate summit, that China has joined the growing list of at least 15 countries committing to methane action plans.
The announcement came as Chinese climate envoy Xie Zhenhua concluded four days of talks in the United States with his US counterpart, John Kerry, in a timing that may signal an imminent new US-China climate agreement.
Australia’s methane emissions make up almost a third of national climate pollution, but efforts to reduce these emissions have so far been limited.
The announcement from China should be a signal for federal energy and climate minister Chris Bowen to do more on methane.
The methane problem is particularly acute: it is more than 28 times more potent than CO2 in trapping heat over 100 years, and more than 80 times more potent over a 20 year timeframe, disproportionately driving warming in the near term.
While China has not formally reported methane emissions since 2014, their recent action plan includes not only a significant methane utilisation target, but an openness to developing advanced methane monitoring approaches using satellites and drones to verify ground based measurements, in a manner that would go far beyond what the Australian government has been willing to commit to so far.
If, as its methane reduction action plan states, China incorporates methane reduction targets in its 2026-2030 “Five Year Plan”, the current suite of commitments could represent a powerful step towards the world’s biggest emitter limiting runaway climate change.
The significance of the plan must be understood in the context of China’s unique political system. When the central government sets a target, it is not voluntary; it becomes mandatory, for example, for the huge State-owned Enterprises (SoEs), to comply.
China is one of the largest methane emitters in the world, and its energy sector is responsible for 50% of the nation’s methane emissions.
The impact of having a methane emissions plan for China’s coal mining, oil and gas industries, even at this stage one that lacks a precise methane reduction target, is potentially much more significant than a comparable policy development would be in other nations.
China’s intervention also throws a spotlight on the lack of an integrated methane action plan in Australia. A year on from signing the Global Methane Pledge – which commits more than 150 countries to cut their methane output 30% by 2030 – Australia unfortunately remains at the back of the pack on cutting super-polluting methane.
Research from consultancy Rennie Advisory shows Australia’s counterparts Canada, the US and UK all implementing policies that will drive down methane emissions. Dozens more have committed policies that reduce methane emissions.
Like China, Australia is a global methane heavyweight. While agriculture remains our greatest source, the IEA estimates that methane emitted from coal mines and gas wells could represent over 40% of Australia’s methane emissions, and these are growing rapidly.
The methane emitted from our coal mines alone represents close to 10% of Australia’s total greenhouse gas emissions emissions each year, but to date, there is no state-led or national plan on how to tackle these emissions, and no clear emissions reduction pathway into the future.
In late October, Prime Minister Albanese met with US President Biden and recommitted to take strong action at home on methane mitigation.
The announcement foreshadows a focus on methane at the upcoming COP28, where conference President Dr. Sultan Al Jaber (also head of United Arab Emirates oil giant ADNOC) has called for the end of methane emissions by 2030, including banning flaring.
While China’s coal expansions have received global attention, the Federal Labor Government has approved four new methane-emitting coal mines since signing the Global Methane Pledge.
Last week, the Queensland government gave the green light to Anglo America to expand its Lake Lindsay open cut coal mine out to 2044, without requiring any estimates on the extent of greenhouse gas pollution in its EIS.
The most recent official federal government projections show that far from playing a role in reducing methane emissions by 30% this decade, Australia’s methane emissions in 2030 will be higher than they are today.
As for China, its policymaking process has shown a pattern of starting vaguely with a framework and specifying more ambitious goals subsequently.
Moreover, there is a record of political leaders upgrading or even doubling energy target ambitions well within a projected timeline, as the country implements its national decarbonisation policies at an unprecedented speed.
For example, after setting China’s “dual-carbon target” in October 2020 – namely, that China will peak CO2 emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060 – President Xi Jinping accelerated China’s commitment to decarbonisation by adding targets for an additional 1,200GW of solar and wind capacity by 2030.
This target is set to be accomplished by 2025, five years ahead of schedule. Likewise, the relatively vague yet comprehensive methane action plan could signal the start of a world-leading program to curb methane emissions, as it prefigures the future direction of China’s methane emissions policy for domestic Chinese industries.
The release of the methane plan right before COP28 and off the back of China’s talks with the US also suggests significant diplomatic objectives. And while China has not yet joined the Global Methane Pledge, this omission doesn’t necessarily imply that China has lesser ambition and interest in establishing methane reduction targets.
During John Kerry’s visit to China in July, Xi remarked that “China’s path to reducing carbon emissions should be determined by China and not controlled by anyone else”.
Whether China will set more ambitious and specific methane emissions reduction policies in its own way to align with science-based global methane reduction targets or not, multilateral platforms and forums, such as the forthcoming UN climate conference, should put pressure on all rich nations, including China, incentivising them to act.
A global race to dramatically slash emissions of climate-wrecking methane is critical if we are to avoid the catastrophic impacts of the climate crisis and retain a liveable planet.
Chris Wright is a climate strategy advisor at international energy think-tank, Ember and Xuyang Dong is China energy policy analyst at think tank Climate Energy Finance.
