The shocking success of Geert Wilders’ far-right PVV party in Dutch elections has left climate activists fearful of a drastic shift to fossil fuels and a rollback of climate policies if it manages to form a government.
Best known abroad for its rhetoric against Muslims, the PVV, which came first in Wednesday’s election but may struggle to find coalition partners, has taken a hard line on policies to stop the planet getting hotter.
The party wants to extract more oil and gas from the North Sea and stop building wind turbines and solar farms. It also wants to abolish the Dutch climate law and leave the Paris agreement on climate change.
“If these elections make one thing clear, it’s that politics will not save us,” said Yolande Schuur from the Dutch branch of activist group Extinction Rebellion.
The PVV, whose success with voters was praised by far-right leaders across Europe on Thursday, has said it is not going to waste billions on “pointless climate hobbies”.
Its manifesto says that the climate has always changed and that the Netherlands – 26% of which lies below sea level – can adapt to further changes. “We will stop the hysterical reduction of CO2 , with which we, as a small country, mistakenly think we can save the climate.”
The Dutch are among the biggest polluters in the world, and also in Europe. Per person, the Netherlands pumped more planet-heating gas into the atmosphere in 2021 than all other EU member states bar Estonia, the Czech Republic, Ireland and Luxembourg.
“PVV is close to climate denialism,” said Heleen de Coninck, professor of climate policy at Eindhoven University of Technology. “It’s not quite denying that climate change is happening and human-made any more, but this is a recent turn.”
Despite this, said De Coninck, who also serves as the vice-chair of the Netherlands Scientific Climate Council, the party’s most extreme views may be tempered even if it is part of a ruling coalition.
“For many of its proposals, the party will not find a majority at all in parliament,” she said. “There was an easy majority for the climate law in parliament and that has not changed.”
Kees van der Leun, managing director of energy consultancy Common Futures, agreed that most Dutch lawmakers favoured “staying the course”.
The country’s climate policies, he said, are guided by EU commitments, recent efforts to kick its dependence on Russian gas and growing interest from businesses. “In my view, the election outcome isn’t likely to significantly slow down our climate policies.”
The EU has committed to cutting emissions by 55% by the end of the decade from 1990 levels before reaching net zero by 2050. The Netherlands is a vocal force in EU climate debates and its former deputy prime minister Wopke Hoekstra is the bloc’s top climate envoy.
Dick van Dam, a researcher at the Netherlands environment agency, said the influence of the election on the climate “may be felt more in Brussels than in The Hague”.
But the prospect of a so-called “Nexit” could change this. PVV wants a referendum on taking the Netherlands out of the EU, though Wilders told Dutch media on Thursday that cutting immigration was his priority.
Two other centre-right parties from which Wilders may seek support – the VVD of the outgoing prime minister Mark Rutte and the NSC of Pieter Omtzigt – have committed to remaining in the EU and supporting the Paris agreement.
“Wilders will need at least two other parties to form a coalition,” said Silke Mooldijk, an analyst at the environmental thinktank NewClimate Institute. “While climate mitigation is not a top priority of either the VVD or the NSC, we don’t expect these parties to agree to a complete standstill of national climate policies.”
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Climate activists are more fearful. Activists from Greenpeace protested against his success in The Hague on Thursday afternoon, waving banners that said: “No climate denier as our prime minister.”
Andy Palmen, director of the Dutch branch of Greenpeace, said: “The climate, our oceans, healthy nature and sustainable agriculture are all at stake.”
He added that the Netherlands does not need a leader who denies climate change but someone who knows how to unite people with honesty, hope and respect. “Wilders has shown that he is not the right person for that.”
Schuur from Extinction Rebellion said the climate policy of the previous government was already inadequate and that the PVV has enough seats to align with delayers and deniers in other parties to block needed policies.
“Even if the PVV is not part of the new government, they can frustrate necessary climate action with 37 seats [out of 150] in the House of Representatives.”
Although small, the Netherlands is an outsize polluter and hub for European industry and agriculture. Its efforts to cut nitrogen pollution after a court ruled levels of the pollutant too high led to widespread protests from farmers and support for the Farmer Citizen Movement, which won the most seats in the Dutch senate earlier this year.
A poll from Ipsos before the election found nitrogen is one of the most polarising issues for Dutch voters – 30% think livestock herds should be limited to cut nitrogen emissions, while 40% disagree.
Still, said De Coninck, voters may have been more concerned with trust in government than the environment, particularly on the right.
“Even though this is a black page in Dutch election history – with a populist extreme-right party becoming so big – I don’t think this was a climate election.”