Biden: damned if he does, damned if he doesn’t

Whether you support President Biden or not, it’s hard to argue with the fact that he has passed the most substantial climate law in our history. Ironically, he has also overseen historic levels of energy (fossil fuel) production.

Usually, politicians get credit for such accomplishments. However, in Biden’s case, he isn’t getting any from either the right, left, or most importantly, the middle.

Biden isn’t getting credit for the record levels of energy production because he doesn’t want to talk about it. The fear is losing the left. He also threw his base a bone when he paused LNG exports.

The larger issue is the Inflation Reduction Act. You would think that its passage would have solidified his base and won significant support among younger voters and moderates. It hasn’t.

A recent Wall Street Journal poll of voters in seven swing states found that a mere 3% of voters ages 18 to 34 identified climate change as their top issue. Sure, economic issues will invariably take priority, but 3% is surprisingly low for younger voters. In fact, it’s almost identical to the 2% of all voters that consider climate their top priority.

Another survey – this one conducted the Yale University Program on Climate Change Communication - showed just how deep the president’s problem is. In that survey over 60% of voters surveyed said they knew “a little” or “nothing at all” about the IRA. That survey also found that once voters read a brief description of the bill, 70% supported it.

Talk about being caught between a rock and a hard place. Biden won’t talk about fossil fuels in fear of alienating the left. Even if he talks up the IRA, he risks energizing the right for overspending. But – and this is the part I don’t get – what about the middle? I believe independents represent the majority of Americans, yet at this point, have no party they can whole-heartedly support?

In my opinion, the middle will decide the winner in November. And in that regard, the president has a challenge. A recent Wal Street Journal poll found Biden narrowly trailing Trump in the key battleground states and the difference appears to be the level of support from independents.  Among independents Trump is leading Biden 36% to 30%. A New York Times/Siena national poll showed similar results. Trump leads with independents by 5 points.

Without making any judgments regarding the benefit to the environment, just from a political standpoint, it seems that Biden can garner support from the middle if he communicates the balance achieved between the need to migrate to clean energy and the acceptance of the continued reliance on fossil fuels.

#inflationreductionact #climatepolicy #cleanenergy #presidentialelection #biden2024 #trump2024