Putin is bombing Ukraine into darkness — and leaving Europe short of power

The EU relies on Kyiv for energy. So Russia is attacking the critical storage sites that hold Europe’s gas.

Notes from the editor:

In recent days, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, has been addressing the potential for increased warfare in Europe. Meanwhile, the United States is engaged in intensive diplomatic efforts to defuse tensions in the Middle East. Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's influential Prime Minister, plays a pivotal role in these developments, with the U.S. striving to prevent any escalation. Concurrently, Putin's relentless bombing campaign in Ukraine has wrought devastation, impacting not only Ukraine but also the broader European region. The ongoing conflict's severe impacts are resonating beyond the immediate areas, raising concerns and challenges at a continental level.

Here are the key points:

1. Ukraine’s Energy Infrastructure Under Attack:

   • Russia has targeted Ukraine’s energy transformers for the past two years, facilitating power distribution.

   • However, the recent shift involves direct attacks on entire power plants, causing more permanent damage.

   • The Trypilska Thermal Power Plant, once a significant electricity producer for millions and a symbol of Ukraine's energy independence, now lies in ruins near Kyiv.Due to these attacks, DTEK, Ukraine’s most prominent private energy firm and a major contributor to the country's economy, has lost nearly 80% of its generating capacity.Repairing the damage will take years, leaving Ukraine in a precarious and desperate situation, struggling to keep the lights and heating on during the upcoming winter. The vulnerability of the nation is stark and deeply concerning.Ukraine’s air defences are depleted, making it challenging to fend off the missiles raining down on energy infrastructure.

2. Spillover to Europe:

   • Last winter, Ukraine offered its gas storage network to European traders to build up reserves in case of Russian supply disruptions.

   • Now, Russia is targeting that very network, raising concerns about Europe’s preparedness for alternative energy sources.

   • Oleg Ustenko, a Ukrainian economist, emphasizes that Russia is using energy as a weapon not only against Ukraine but against the entire world.

3. A Dispiriting Development:

   • Until recently, Ukraine was optimistic about becoming an energy powerhouse for Europe and exporting electricity to its Western neighbours.

   • Now, the destruction of power plants and infrastructure threatens stability and security.

The situation is critical, and the impact extends beyond Ukraine’s borders. Europe must grapple with the consequences of this energy crisis caused by conflict and aggression. It is crucial for us, as global citizens, to stay informed and advocate for peaceful resolutions to such conflicts.

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  POLITICO EU BY GABRIEL GAVIN AND VICTOR JACK, APRIL 17, 2024 6:00 AM CET

Just outside Kyiv is a smoking crater where one of Ukraine's largest power plants used to be.

The bombed-out ruin of the Trypilska Thermal Power Plant — the main electricity producer for millions of people — is a symbol of a devastating shift underway in Ukraine. In recent weeks, Russia has started inflicting far more permanent damage on Ukraine’s energy system, not only taking out generating stations but even going after the vast underground gas storage facilities the EU leaned on last winter to avoid its own energy shortages.

It's a change from the past two years, when Moscow and its invading army mostly targeted Ukraine’s energy transformers, the components that move power from one circuit to another. Such attacks were damaging, but the parts could be quickly repaired or substituted.Now that entire power plants are in their crosshairs, the repairs are going to take years. And the storage strikes may deprive Europe of a critical backup plan.

"Our thermal power plants have been attacked 48 times over the past six months, but without a doubt, Russia’s attacks in the past few weeks have been the worst since [the] full-scale invasion in 2022," Maxim Timchenko, CEO of Ukraine's largest private energy firm, DTEK, told POLITICO. 

The company, he said, has now lost close to 80 percent of its generating capacity. 

The results are distressing — and not just for Ukraine. Officials there are worried about how they’ll get through the winter with the lights and heating on. Ukraine’s air defenses are running low, they say, making it increasingly difficult to parry the missiles raining down on energy infrastructure. Nor are there many easy-to-access repair parts for those degraded power plants.

Then there’s the spillover to Europe. Last winter Ukraine offered its gas storage network to European traders as they frantically built up reserves in case Russia axed supplies when the temperature dropped. Now Russia is targeting that network, raising questions about whether the EU is prepared with alternatives.

"The Russians have been trying to use energy as a weapon not just against Ukraine but against the whole world," said Oleg Ustenko, a Ukrainian economist who until recently served as a senior advisor to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. “This is a challenge for us, but it's also a challenge for Europe.”

Gridlock

It’s a dispiriting development in an area that, until recently, was a source of optimism for Ukraine. 

Just weeks ago Ukraine was pitching itself as a powerhouse for Europe, boasting of exporting around €1 million in electricity daily to its Western neighbors. Now the financial balance has flipped, with Kyiv draining its precarious budget to import energy as it struggles to avoid blackouts and power a wartime arms industry.

"There's enormous pressure, especially in regions like Kharkiv where all our main assets were attacked by missiles and we are trying to restore as much power as possible while the adversary is undertaking more and more new attacks," said Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, CEO of state power grid operator Ukrenergo, in an interview. 

"I'm sure we will be able to get the grid up and running,” he added, “but the generation of power seems to be the main problem."

According to Timchenko, only support from Ukraine's allies can save the grid from more destruction. 

"Unfortunately, the passive defenses DTEK has been installing — such as concrete blocks and sandbags — have only had a limited effect against these precision attacks,” he said. “We urgently need stronger air defenses to save and protect Ukraine’s energy system."

Kyiv has been calling on its partners to step up and help it defend its infrastructure since the start of the new wave of bombardments in March.

Speaking in the aftermath of the Trypilska power plant bombing, Zelenskyy said: "11 missiles flew towards it. We destroyed the first seven; four others destroyed the plant. Why? Because there were zero [Ukrainian] missiles — we have run out of all the missiles that protected Trypilska." 

For now, though, a critical aid package for Ukraine is tied up within a months-long deadlock in Washington.

On Monday Ukrainian Energy Minister German Galushchenko held emergency talks in Brussels with the EU's energy commissioner, Kadri Simson, as the situation continued to deteriorate. According to a Ukrainian official with knowledge of the talks, the minister focused on "further international steps and assistance needed to support the energy system of Ukraine — with foremost priority to ensure more air defense."

While Germany confirmed over the weekend it would ship one additional Patriot air defense battery to Ukraine, many see that as too little, too late following attacks that have deprived the country of its energy independence. Now, instead of helping the EU break its dependence on Russian fossil fuels by providing cheap electricity, Kyiv is left hoping that its neighbors will help it keep the lights on in the coming months, and maybe years.

"This is having dramatic economic effects," Ustenko said. "It's very unlikely we will be able to continue exports and probably will be needing to import electricity." 

To make matters worse, he added, the mounting attacks risk deterring the private investors that Ukraine needs to modernize its beleaguered grid and roll out smaller renewable energy projects that will be harder for the Russians to target. 

Gas fears

Ukraine’s energy troubles are increasingly becoming Europe’s energy troubles as well. 

Last week Russia signaled a potential new phase in its energy assault, striking two separate sites tied to Ukraine’s underground natural gas storage network. 

The facilities were crucial to Europe’s energy efforts last winter, with traders stashing billions of cubic meters of fuel there in case of acute shortages. The extra storage capacity gave EU countries easy access to the supplies and allowed companies to store excess fuel they would otherwise have had nowhere to put — and which they would have been forced to sell off at a cost of up to €2 billion.

"Ukraine saved Europe's ass," said Aura Sabadus, a gas expert at commodities intelligence firm ICIS. "And the tragedy is that the gas they were storing comes from countries that are opposed to sending aid to Ukraine, most of it comes from Hungary and Slovakia. And ultimately that will backfire.”

There’s more supply uncertainty on the horizon for Europe, too. At the end of the year a transit deal allowing Russia to send pipeline gas to the EU via Ukraine is set to expire, and Kyiv is insisting the pact will not be extended.

"The horror scenario is no Ukrainian storage facilities in December, no transit," Sabadus said. "Then what do we actually do? And even longer term, with another huge glut of liquefied natural gas coming in from the U.S. and Qatar from 2025 onwards, where are we going to put all that as a security of supply measure?"

According to Ustenko, the former Zelenskyy advisor, the longer the West waffles over handing Ukraine more air defense systems, the worse it will be for everyone involved.

"We need to save our country, save our people, and the sooner decisions about anti-air missiles are taken, the better it's going to be for Ukraine and Europe,” he said.

Speaking to POLITICO, the European Commission's energy spokesperson Tim McPhie said that the bloc has and will continue to help Ukraine repair the damage to its energy system. "This is done first and foremost for the benefit of our Ukrainian friends; the gas stored in Ukraine is only a small percentage of our domestic needs in Europe, though of course this extra capacity is welcome and useful.”

"We will continue to provide the necessary support to respond to Ukraine’s energy needs. This includes the repair of the gas storage sites which have recently been attacked, continued electricity exports through our synchronized electricity grids, and material contributions through the Ukraine Energy Support Fund and the EU Civil Protection Mechanism.”

Gabriel Gavin reported from Berlin. Victor Jack reported from Brussels. Veronika Melkozerova contributed reporting from Kyiv. 

This article has been updated with a response from the European Commission.

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