Ganging up on Tesla Could Help Accelerate EV Adoption

Market competition is always a good thing

Fun post.  I'd argue that Stellantis is a car company with a lot of brands. They do actually make cars.  In fact, they make and sell about as many vehicles in the US as Tesla plans to make in 2023 for the world

A few facts and figures.

Not sure about the expectation for 50% of the vehicle install base converting to EV by 2030.  The US has 231M cars today, and EVs accounted for only 928K sales in 2022, so there's not enough production capacity planned in the next 7 years to replace half of the petrol fleet.

50% of annual sales might be achievable, but not in that same 7 years.  Tesla will make 1.8M cars in 2023 for the world, and they have cumulatively shipped on 4M cars to date.  Since Tesla accounts for 65%+ of EV sales in the US, the numbers don't add up.  Tesla would have to triple production at current proportions to meet that goal, and they are already starting to discount their cars due to slow sales.

US sales of cars and light trucks topped 13.8M last year, and manufacturers still haven't figured out how to make EVs at a profit.  Ford lost $2.1B on EVs just in 2022 and cannot afford to lose money for 7 years to hit some artificial figure not supported by consumers.  Their shareholders won't like that.

But, here's another stat.  We don't need 1M charging stations.  The US has 115K gas stations.  If each station has 6 pumps, that's 690K gas pumps for 291M ICE vehicles, or 1 pump for every 421 cars and trucks.

Even if EVs hit 50% of fleet sales, or 7M vehicles, on top of roughly 5M vehicles already produced, 1M charging stations is WAY over capacity for 12M vehicles.  One public charging station for every 12 EVs doesn't make sense.  And, every homeowner with an EV can install their own charging station in their home, which further reduces the volume of public stations required.

Public fast chargers are like real estate.  It's all about location.  Put them at convenience stores and fueling plazas, especially off the beaten path.  And, someone better have a reliable app that tells me where a fast charger is, if it's in good working order, and how many people are queued up to use it.  Being available where drivers need them will be much more efficient and cost effective approach, especially for utilities.  No way does an electric utility want to invest in infrastructure that then requires support and maintenance that customers don't want or don't need and won't use.

That investment by the manufacturers sounds like a bit of a dog, especially if they pick the CCS charging standard like the EU instead of Tesla's NACS, that Ford and GM have already pledged to adopt.

By the way, I like the Jeep PHEV from Stellantis.  Very modern ride with 30M of EV only range, which is enough to get around town at least.