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Len Rosen's picture
Principal Author and Editor, 21st Century Tech Blog

Futurist, Writer and Researcher, now retired, former freelance writer for new technology ventures. Former President & CEO of Len Rosen Marketing Inc., a marketing consulting firm focused on...

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  • Jan 25, 2023
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A recent publication, “The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal: A global independent scientific assessment,” a collaboration of research done in the United States, United Kingdom, and the Europe Union calls for the need to remove between 450 billion and 1,100 billion tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere by 2100 if we hope to keep mean global temperatures within the Paris Climate Agreement goal of 1.5 Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) or even 2.0 Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit). 

How significant is the challenge? Currently, we remove 2 billion tons of CO2 from the atmosphere annually. Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) is accomplished largely through reforestation, forest maintenance, and soil carbonation, not from novel technologies such as Direct Air Capture (DAC) and Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) which currently only contribute 0.1% of total CDR annually. But short of cutting off all sources of CO2 emissions with the consequences that would entail, it is DAC and CCS that will likely when ramped up help us remove the 450 to 1,100 billion tons. This means we need to increase the deployment of CDR technology 1,300 times from where we are at present.

 

Discussions
Rick Engebretson's picture
Rick Engebretson on Jan 26, 2023

You often provide insightful references that trigger my interest and response. Previously, I found "RainForestEnergy" a great reference that might also pertain to this "Carbon Capture" topic.

Living in rural Minnesota does NOT make me world-wise, but we practice "forest maintenance, and soil carbonation" common sense small farming. And as an old biophysical chemist, I would also see industry news magazines like "Chemical and Engineering News" in the lab I once worked at in the 1970s. It seems now hydrocarbon fuel synthesis has become automated, and making simple fuels like propane from syngas is cost competitive with fossil extraction sources and processing.

It might be easier to re-invent conventional simple fuel sources using atmospheric CO2 extraction than to re-invent most all the chemical fuel use technologies.

Tom Rolfson's picture
Tom Rolfson on Jan 27, 2023

Thanks for putting some of this into perspective, Len. There is certainly a long way to go in actually deploying carbon capture in any meaningful way- I believe we're starting to see some growth from a few seeds here in the U.S., with some large companies actually taking a serious look at this. The biggest reason they are looking? Because of the money, not any climate change concerns. Only when the climate change concerns tip the financial scales towards these carbon capture (either through govt subsidies, tax incentives, or public pressure on regulators) will we really see a worthwhile effort. It does seem like things are moving in that direction, whether stakeholders on either side of it like it.

Thanks again for the insightful piece!

Marco Mazzoni's picture
Marco Mazzoni on Jan 30, 2023

From a comment in another thread "The Int'l Energy Agency says:  'Capturing CO2 directly from the air is currently the most expensive approach...' and they show an average of USD$238/ton price for that type reduction."

Who's going to fund this? It would seem that we need to focus on eliminating CO2 emissions before they reach the atmosphere in the transportation and electricity generating sections first, which make up about 50% of current emissions. 

Rick Engebretson's picture
Rick Engebretson on Jan 31, 2023

Capturing CO2 "directly" from the air is certainly implausible. But plants building "biomass" capturing CO2 do it by "nature." And plants are growing faster due to excess atmospheric CO2 to the point where water is a key growth limiting photosynthesis resource. The land is drying out and often burning out.

Yet another online article provides yet more extensive information on a vastly different approach to sustainable energy;

 

Let us know when the windmill/solar panel electric razzle dazzle shows technical success. Until then, give proven alternative ideas a fair hearing.

Brian Petermann's picture
Brian Petermann on Feb 5, 2023

Len:

Great food for thought.

The one nuance to the title I would change would be: "The Current State of Carbon Capture does not Meet the PERCEIVED Need in Combating Climate Change." If decisionmakers and the public were truly convinced that the various changes in the climate that have been reported is truly an existential threat, then the problem would be addressed with no limit of money or dedication. As it is, there is a perception that something should be done, but there are more important things to pay attention to. It is human nature when the doctor says to lose weight and lower cholesterol or risk significant health impacts or even death; but commonly we will put it off or not make an all-out effort whatever the cost to implement a solution. We tend to see it as an existential threat only after a heart attack. Although there is climate change (as there has always been), the public does not yet see it as an existential threat. So, we are left with using public funds (aka, taxes) to finance the implementation of (aka, forcing) decarbonization. This was exactly the case for wind and solar which grew in technological capacity and extent only after (and continuing) the infusion of public funds. Nevertheless, whether we must, should, or want to decarbonize, the infusion of public funds will take things in the decarbonizing direction. Whether its "enough" is dependent on the perceived need.

Len Rosen's picture
Thank Len for the Post!
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