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Future EV Batteries

image credit: amprius.com

John Benson 372,911

Senior Consultant, Microgrid Labs

PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE: Microgrid Labs, Inc. Advisor: 2014 to Present Developed product plans, conceptual and preliminary designs for projects, performed industry surveys and developed...

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Oct 11, 2022Oct 11, 2022 3:12 pm GMT
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This paper started with a very good article in one of my favorite sources (Science), about how consumers are likely to demand EV batteries in the near-term future that can fast-charge at record rates. And further, if manufacturers could not supply these, this would put California’s goal of mandating that all light vehicles be mostly electric starting in 2035 at risk.

Contrary to the above argument is the fact that most EV owners in my home state (California) charge in the evenings at home. Experts noted most EV charging is done in off-peak hours, mostly because of time-of-use rates set by utilities that push drivers to power up overnight. Industry experts said efficient charging technology is just getting started.

To reinforce this fact, my electric utility (PG&E) and, I assume, other investor-owned utilities in our state, offer special rates for EVs. These rates are three-tiered time-of-use rate, with a very-low off-peak rate (from 11:00 PM until 7:00 AM).

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Matt Chester on Oct 11, 2022

I never really give charging a second thought when I'm at home and its accessible, and when people ask me about driving an EV those are the charges they never ask about. It's always the planning for long trips-- the type of drives I take maybe 5 or 6 times a year. It's similar to how customers never think about their utility except for the 10-20 hours per year there may be interruptions, conservation alerts, peak pricing, etc.

John Benson on Oct 12, 2022

Hi Matt, thanks for the comment.

I hope you have a decent tariff as described in the Post.

The funny thing is, when readers that are not from CA look at my "very low off-peak rates." they usually comment that these are outrageously high. All of our rates are high in California due to steadily increasing Cap & Trade adders. The good news is that this has incentivized over a million CA utility customers to install PV. Also, the rate of increase should moderate as the share of clean generation (very low GHG) increases. it's currently between 55% and 60%.

Of course, once I install PV + BESS early next year, I will no longer have the "high-rate" disincentive to buy an EV but will probably keep my old IC clunkers for the time being.

Jim Stack on Oct 12, 2022

Batteries for EVs get better every day. We now have million mile batteries from Tesla. In FACT the same battery cells are used for GRID storage. The price of battery storage has come down over 97% in the past 30 years.

Quote= The price of lithium-ion battery cells declined by 97% in the last three decades. A battery with a capacity of one kilowatt-hour that cost $7500 in 1991, was just $181 in 2018. That's 41 times less. What's promising is that prices are still falling steeply: the cost halved between 2014 and 2018.Jun 4, 2021

John Benson on Oct 14, 2022

Thanks for the comment, Jim.

I agree with your comment, but as RVs become more popular, demand for expensive metals (manly cobalt and nickel) may start driving the price up for some cathode chemistries.

Start with subsection 3.3 in the post linked below. This is a long subsection, and the part I need to point you at is about halfway through. Look for the four bullets, each with a cathode chemistry that is currently used.

https://energycentral.com/c/ec/evs-mid-summer-2022

The one chemistry that is somewhat immune from the "expensive metal" issue is LFP, because it is made from very common materials. Thus this is the chemistry used in most battery energy storage systems, and Tesla also uses it in their least expensive models (base Model 3s and maybe base Model Ys). The most recent chemistry (NCMA) uses very little cobalt, but it lots of nickel.

Then continue reading for what may be the next battery.

-John

John Benson on Mar 7, 2023

Note that Amprius, the company I focused on for this post, has identified a site for their major factory. Go through the link below for details.

Silicon anode battery producer files for 5 GWh production facility in Colorado – pv magazine USA (pv-magazine-usa.com)

Also, I will post a paper on another company that is working on a high-silicon anode for LiIon batteries, NaboGraf, on March 21.

-John

Thank John for the Post!

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