Success, or another COP Flop?

Success, or another COP Flop?

After a marathon overtime session, the United Nations Climate Change Conference - COP28 - concluded.

It is being hailed as the “beginning of the end” of the fossil fuel era.

Sadly, that is a delusional statement.

I get the world’s inclination to gather to solve a global issue, but the world has rarely solved problems in that fashion. COP moves the needle on the margins, which is all one should expect when gathering a group that have disparate - and sometimes diametrically opposed - objectives.

The human race is woefully poor at solving long-term problems. It prefers a good crisis, which tends to force objectives to align. Unfortunately, by the time global warming reaches the crisis stage it will be too late.

The conference ran long because the delegates couldn’t agree upon wording on transitioning from fossil fuels. Staunch environmentalists called for a rapid phase-out of coal, oil, and gas. That was a non-starter.

A final agreement was reached on the following “watered-down” wording:

… accelerating efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power, phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies, and other measures that drive the transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, with developed countries continuing to take the lead.

Translation: we’ll stop burning fossil fuels when it’s convenient for us to do so.

COP agreements are not legally binding, rendering any wording meaningless. As the saying goes – action speaks louder than words. And the world’s actions illustrate the futility of thinking COP makes a real difference.

The evidence is clear.

The COP statement also calls for a “tripling of renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency improvements by 2030.”

Why is such a rapid deployment needed in such a short time? Because none of the previous 27 COP goals have been achieved.

The World Resource Institute published a State of Climate Action Report that translated the Paris Agreement into 42 metrics: 41 of 42 are short or well short of the mark. Again, that’s after 28 years of conducting annual gatherings to foster cooperation.

According to McKinsey and Company, to reach previously agreed upon 2030 net-zero targets, and hold warming to the current target of 1.5 degrees C, various clean technologies would have to scale as follows:

• Wind: 6-fold
• Solar: 14-fold
• EVs: 14-fold
• Green hydrogen electrolyzer capacity: 200-fold
• Carbon capture, utilization, and storage: 100-fold

In other words - forget about it.

I’m not trying to bum people out but open their eyes to the reality that what we’re doing isn’t working, and it isn’t going to work. It’s time to set a new course and strategy. Combating global warming is a massive challenge. To have any chance of success requires developing realistic plans and goals that include actual accountability, not meaningless words.