Has the Focus Shifted from Climate Change?

Isn’t that surprising that the word ‘fossil fuel’ appeared just once in COP 18 held at Qatar in 2012 as against 46 times of the COP28 report where governments agreed to transition away from all fossil fuels.  Some would even remember that at the start of climate talks (1992) UNFCC mentions them towards reduction – the shift from the borders to the centre of negotiations happened due to several reasons.  Mounting climate impacts, falling prices of renewables and interventions from authoritative voices are a few reasons in this regard.  Despite recognizing the difficulties of developing countries whose economy is dependent on fossil fuel production, the option of limiting greenhouse gases cannot be under-rated.

Surprisingly, the need to reduce fossil fuels did not figure in COP meetings that took place for the last quarter century as the emphasis was on agreement to commit to limit global warming.  However, success eventually came in 2015 at the Paris Summit after a series of failures.  This agreement led to working out strategies designed towards the headline goal.  Poland, Europe’s biggest defender of coal hosted several talks the most recent being 2018 (COP 24) where the delegated experience spelt uneasiness on polluted air.  United Kingdom (UK) which hosted COP 26 presented no better scenario than Poland.  However between 1990 and 2019 coal for electricity got reduced by 96% mainly with gas and later, wind.

Head of the United Nations had been pressing for an end to new coal plants since 2019 and in August 2021, IPCC report said, ‘must sound a death knell for coal and fossil fuels, before they destroy our planet’.  Following the clue, China, Japan and South Korea halted financing new coal-fired plants – a decision most Western nations/multilateral banks had already taken.  UK was successful convincing governments to phase down coal (first mention of fossil fuel in a COP agreement).

TRANSITION FROM FOSSIL FUEL

Approximately, one quarter of all energy related greenhouse gas emissions stem from the transport sector (95% of world’s transport energy).  This is projected to rise to one third outscoring growth in the other sectors.  With the demand rising for resources, energy and motorised transport clubbed with unplanned and unmanaged urbanization biodiversity loss, air pollution render climate crisis more complicated.

This has prompted UNEP for collaboration with countries and partners to facilitate global transition from fossil fuels to electric mobility including Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), two/three wheelers and light duty vehicles.  This change is believed to ensure cleaner air and reduction of greenhouse gases at least from transport sector.

However, there are still significant gaps between the current deployment of energy transition technologies and the levels desired to achieve the goal and therefore, a wholesale transformation the way societies consume and produce energy demands a re-look.  The current pledges falling short of 1.50C pathway has resulted in an emission gap of 16 GT in 2050.  Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) along with other options IF, fully implemented is estimated to reduce carbon dioxide emission by 6% (2030) and 56% (2050) respectively compared to 2022 levels.  Moreover, most climate pledges need be translated yet into detailed national strategies through policies and regulations or for that matter supported with sufficient funding.  The fact that energy related emission gap is projected to reach 34 GT (2050) according to IRENA’s Energy scenario underscores immediate need for a comprehensive action accelerating transition.  About 83% of new renewables progress compared to 17% of fossil fuels and nuclear in 2022 needs to promote such additions to grow substantially – technically feasible and economically viable.

Unfortunately, policies and investments do not seem to move in the right direction and the gap between achievement and requirement seem growing.  The transport and building sectors requiring high rate of electrification would demand twelve-fold increase in renewable by 2050.  Even biomass and hydrogen would play vital roles in meeting the final energy consumption by 2050.

It is therefore imperative that a right balance between reactive measures and proactive energy transition could promote a more inclusive and climate-safe system.  However, there are teething problems in all the three stages of this transition:

The seriousness with which the transition was deliberated at the COP28 Conference perhaps would guide as a catalyst in scaling up actions with the immediate target of 2030.  While this has been crucial not only from the point of view of economics but even social and environmental, it would be ideal that governments, financial institutions and even private sector re-evaluate their aspirations, strategies and implementation plans in re-aligning energy transition.

RENEWABLE AS CHOICE

In the light of emphasis on energy transition, a strategic shift beyond the focus on just decarbonisation of energy supply and consumption towards energy system design that not only reduces carbon emissions but support resilient and inclusive economy is what is warranted.  In fact, it is the entire system – energy production and transportation including processing coal, oil and gas will need to change. This approach of focussing on systems design will perhaps accelerate new energy infrastructure and implementation sustenance.  Transmission and distribution needs to orient to both highly localised, decentralised nature of renewables and even trade routes.  Although fossil fuels would continue to remain in the energy mix, their share needs to dramatically decrease towards the mid-century.  Growing investments and expansion of installed capacities understandably, would create additional jobs followed by education and skill building.  

PRIORITIES OF FUTURE ACTION:  If we need to progress on renewables, huge investments along with enabling infrastructure along with comprehensive policies are indeed vital.  However, this would remain as just an aspiration unless commitments are embedded in legislation, translated into implementation with adequate resources. Thus, significant structural changes in a short frame of time is what is needed to translate in delivering the commitment towards net-zero.  It is obvious that technical challenges in redesigning infrastructure clubbed with environmental and social aspects be adequately addressed.  Accelerating energy transition of developing countries with considerable support would improve not only energy security but even preventing the gap in global decarbonisation.

International co-operation in enhancing and redesigning would certainly determine the outcome of energy transition which is crucial for greater resilience, inclusion and equality.

FOCUS SHIFT

While we are concentrating on energy transition from fossil fuels, the focus seems to be gradually drifting towards unbearable temperatures across the globe resulting in repeated wildfires in a few countries - Greek island fires are indeed the right example.  About 384 Mha of land was lost due to wildfires in 2023 that accounted for about 2170 megatons of carbon emissions with almost 30% from Canada.  Such fires strip almost all the organic values of soil rendering its ability to support any plant again. The United Nations Secretary General in a recent message warned that the ‘global warming era’ has ended resulting in the era of ‘global boiling’ due to climate inaction.  Arizona for example seems to be experiencing 430C for almost a month warning that climate change is indeed a serious problem. 

It is just not the wildfires but even, the melting subterranean permafrost at the poles is not encouraging news.  Abrupt melting leads to erosion, landslides and craters in the Arctic landscape.  There are examples even in crater expansion especially that of Siberia’s massive Batagarika Crater which is expanding at a rate of 35 million cubic feet each year – currently at 1 km long and 800 m across.  In fact this is not a crater but a thermokarst depression resulted due to collapse and fracturing of land due to permafrost loss.  When a permafrost layer degrades, it turns into a muddy mass unable to support vegetation and when the edges collapse into it, canopies of trees are lost.  That is when exposed organic matter breaks down to release carbon into the atmosphere.

CONCLUSION: