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COP28’s Focus and Agreed to Action on Methane is Delusional Collective Thinking

Len Rosen 76,443

Principal Author and Editor, 21st Century Tech Blog

Futurist, Writer and Researcher, now retired, former freelance writer for new technology ventures. Former President & CEO of Len Rosen Marketing Inc., a marketing consulting firm focused on...

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Dec 21, 2023Dec 21, 2023 7:12 pm GMT
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There is no doubt that methane (CH4) packs a greenhouse gas punch greater than carbon dioxide (CO2) over the short term making it the low-hanging fruit of climate solutions. Maybe, that’s why talk about CH4 came up often at the recently concluded COP28 in Dubai. But what is missing when describing CH4’s atmospheric impact is its short duration lasting a mere 12 years, and certainly no more than 20. CH4 after becomes CO2 and water vapour. So we still have two potent greenhouse gasses to deal with after the fact.

A kilogram of CO2 entering the atmosphere today will be around for as long as a thousand years. Humans are not putting kilograms but rather megatons of CO2 into the air annually. When compared to volcanic eruptions each year, we produce 60 times more. Our total emissions for 2022 were 36.8 billion tons. That was 0.9% higher than in 2021 but lower than the rate of global economic growth at 3.2%.

CH4 emissions are the least of our greenhouse gas worries. The amount of warming caused by CH4 is short-term because it doesn’t accumulate in the atmosphere for 12 to 20 years. When it vanishes it degrades to become a CO2 problem. Delay CH4 action and its effects will vanish in two decades. Delay acting on CO2, and it will keep accumulating for up to 1,000 years. That’s why every added kilogram of CO2 is the much greater global warming threat.

COP28’s Focus and Agreed to Action on Methane is Delusional Collective Thinking

COP28 included 155 nations and 50 oil & gas company agreements to tackle methane which degrades to CO2 in time, leaving the longer-term problem and more dangerous greenhouse gas.

Source: www.21stcentech.com

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Matt Chester on Dec 21, 2023

Is methane more readily agreed upon in these conversations because it can be seen as the low hanging fruit while countries are reticient to commit to the harder CO2 conversations?

Len Rosen on Dec 22, 2023

I think the low-hanging fruit issue is why methane was so much on the minds of COP28 attendees. CO2 is tougher for countries to create consensus.

Douglas Cotton on Dec 22, 2023

There is a lot of doubt that either methane (0.0002%) or carbon dioxide (0.04% of the atmosphere) pack any punch at all other than, according to the only correct relevant physics, a minute cooling effect. You see, Len, neither you, nor NASA, nor the IPCC nor the CSIRO in Australia, etc. can produce any correct physics that could be used to quantify surface temperatures or increases in such as having anything to do with these two gases. The proof is in my six papers at https://ssrn.com/author=2627605 and, unless and until you can produce valid science obeying long established laws of physics that correctly refutes anything in any of those papers, then I suggest you and others here cease promulgating what top scientist Hal Lewis called "the biggest and most successful pseudoscientific scam" he had ever seen. His description is correct.

Douglas Cotton on Dec 26, 2023

I wonder how many readers realize that for every methane molecule in the atmosphere there are more than half a million other air molecules. Need I say more? Well, yes, because there is no valid physics that could be used to explain any surface warming by any so-called "greenhouse" gas. Disagree? Then produce such physics here!

Thank Len for the Post!

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