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Participants in the Last Clean-Vehicle Segments Emerge

image credit: HotCars.com

John Benson 397,796

Senior Consultant, Microgrid Labs

PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE: Microgrid Labs, Inc. Advisor: 2014 to Present Developed product plans, conceptual and preliminary designs for projects, performed industry surveys and developed...

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Apr 11, 2023Apr 11, 2023 2:44 pm GMT
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I have written enough papers on hydrogen-fueled vehicles to know their potential advantages verses battery-electric vehicles (BEV):

Fast refueling
Very long run-time without refueling

There are two segments of vehicles that appear to be unable to easily transition to designs with no greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions:

Construction vehicles (bulldozers, front loaders, dump trucks, backhoes, etc.)
Long-range/duration road vehicles (interstate transports, heavy tow trucks, etc.)

There seems to be a match between the above “advantages” and “vehicles” that might suggest the emergence of some hydrogen-fueled vehicles to meet the needs of the two vehicle segments.

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Charles Botsford, PE on Apr 14, 2023

Hi John,

I wouldn't count out EVs for the above applications. Port cargo handling equipment -- tophandlers, UTRs (yard haulers), heavy-duty forklifts, rubber tire gantries, all look good for electrification versus hydrogen, primarily because of logistics, but also because of much lower operational costs. I believe it's just a matter of time until construction equipment falls to electrification. I've seen massive mining trucks (three stories tall) fitted with an electric drive train. It's too late for hydrogen relative to heavy-duty trucks. Short-haul (drayage) is no contest. Long-haul is a bit harder, but still a clear winner. The CFI ($2.5B) federal program is funding MD/HD fast charging corridors across the country. Difficult to build out H2 refueling infrastructure when it costs $10M per HD station, and you know, no way to get hydrogen to them.

John Benson on Apr 17, 2023

Hi Charles:

Although I agree with most of your comments, I believe the battle for the three mobility technologies: (battery energy storage, hydrogen-fuel-cell and hydrogen-internal combustion) will be very fragmented. The main determinants of the viability of a particular winner will be the local availability of hydrogen supply and delivery infrastructure, the potential size of the user base when the deployment is required (note my local California / Livermore Valley / San Joaquin Valley example). I also believe that California will spawn multiple paths, mainly because they are taking an "all of the above" path to mobility decarbonization.

Another reason for market fragmentation is because hydrogen IC technology will pick off some users that prefer a retrofit vs. a new vehicle (assuming the hydrogen availability issues that you pointed out can be resolved). However, also keep in mind that decarbonization will mostly happen on a state-by-state basis, with early adapter states like mine moving first and much more conservative states moving a decade or two later.

-John

Thank John for the Post!

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