We don't drive like Norwegians

Scrolling through my newsfeed this morning, I came across this big article in the New York Times detailing the success of electric vehicles in Norway. As a proponent of the electric transition, I was excited to have my worries about possible growing pains assuaged. Unfortunately, as I got deeper into the article, I came to realize that the author had failed to sufficiently analyze the differences between America and Norway that could explain the Nordic country’s smooth transition. 

If you don’t already know, Norway is light years ahead of us when it comes to EVs. The Norwegian government started promoting electric cars back in the 90’s, and has only continued to push harder in recent times with a multitude of subsidies and regulations. In 2022, 80 percent of new-car sales were electric. By 2025, all new car sales will be electric if the current law holds. 

The benefits of having fewer gas-powered vehicles on the road are what you’d expect: 

“Levels of nitrogen oxides, byproducts of burning gasoline and diesel that cause smog, asthma and other ailments, have fallen sharply as electric vehicle ownership has risen. “We are on the verge of solving the NOx problem,” said Tobias Wolf, Oslo’s chief engineer for air quality, referring to nitrogen oxides.”

However, what’s most interesting is what has not materialized: A massive grid failure. Here’s what the article says:

“Norway’s experience suggests that electric vehicles bring benefits without the dire consequences predicted by some critics. There are problems, of course, including unreliable chargers and long waits during periods of high demand. Auto dealers and retailers have had to adapt. The switch has reordered the auto industry, making Tesla the best-selling brand and marginalizing established carmakers like Renault and Fiat.”

The author concedes that Norway’s impressive hydro resources have helped keep the grid afloat, but doesn’t say much else about how they’ve avoided power failures. 

I put my investigative journalist cap on to see if I could find evidence of any sort of load management problems in Norway that predated their transportation transition. I couldn’t. I’m sure a better investigator could dig up a few blackouts, but the fact that I couldn’t is probably indicative of how solid Norway’s grid is. A similar search for American blackouts would yield a litany of results.

I’m still not sure our grid can take on a massive EV switch, assuming everything else remains the same. Unlike Norway, we are plagued with blackouts that just seem to be getting worse every year. The modest uptick in demand, that the author says Norway has observed, would exacerbate our problems. 

Should we put off electric vehicles then? Absolutely not. They are too important to mitigating climate change and cleaning up our urban air. However, if we are to go electric we must be more efficient. We must be more like the Norwegians. 

Norwegians, even ones of means, commute by bike in miserable conditions. Public transportation is full of people from all income brackets. People walk to the grocery store. Upper middle class families of four make do with one compact car. 

By contrast, in America, childless bachelors and bachelorettes drive their giant pickup trucks everywhere. Public buses in most cities are often empty, or close to it. 

If our grid is to withstand an electric transition, it will have to become more efficient.