The Coronavirus pandemic is wreaking havoc on health, social ties and the global economy. But could there be a silver lining? Could coronavirus be slowing global carbon emissions?
Let’s be clear: a global health pandemic is not the way we want to reduce carbon emissions. Nevertheless, the unintended consequences of the pandemic are slowing down or stopping travel, cargo shipments, car use as people telework and avoid gatherings, and manufacturing in places like China.
How do these sectors contribute to climate change?
● Air travel makes up 2.5% of global carbon emissions.
● Transportation makes up 20% of global CO2 emissions.
● Manufacturing and construction make up 20% of CO2 emissions.
It’s too early to know how much carbon will be reduced globally due to COVID-19, but if we look at the global recession of 2008-09, the last year in which carbon emissions went down, it caused a small reduction of 1.4% in carbon emissions. But in February, China experienced a 25% reduction in carbon emissions only causing a small decrease in economic growth according to a study by Carbon Brief.
We don’t know the long-term economic and social impacts of COVID-19. There could be long-term structural changes to the way we work, socialize, and travel. Will telework and virtual meetings push companies towards more flexible work arrangements after the virus is contained, reducing the need to drive to work? Will people avoid pollution-contributing travel like cruises (which triple a person’s carbon footprint), and have been breeding grounds for COVID-19 and other illnesses?
Before we get too hopeful about the climate, any reductions in carbon may be offset by China and other countries ramping up production once the virus slows down. China and others may also boost their economies by subsidizing polluting industries like cement and steel.
Alongside the pandemic, the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia could impact carbon emissions in different ways. As oil prices fall, it could make car manufacturers less likely to invest in electric cars and likewise, consumers to purchase less fuel-efficient vehicles. But at the same time, regulations mandating a move to electric cars in places like China, Europe and California may help to mitigate this effect. Oil companies may also have less money to invest in renewable sources of energy. On the flip side, oil price instability may provide companies an incentive to switch to greener sources of energy such as wind or solar. Then again, China produces most of the world’s solar panels so there could be supply chain issues during the pandemic in getting panels shipped worldwide.
With all of the countervailing forces, the takeaway is this: as individuals living in our communities, we have a responsibility to protect ourselves and those around us. As the world comes together to combat this health crisis, we know it is possible to make structural changes when political will and individuals take action. Let’s work at reducing our own carbon footprints and not wait for another pandemic to do it for us.
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