RICHLAND, IOWA - NOVEMBER 03: A voter marks his ballot at a polling place in Dennis Wilkening's shed ... [+]
The 2020 elections raise red flags for climate policy. This was supposed to be a climate election but turned out to be a “COVID-19 versus the economy” election. Exit polls suggest that Democrats and Republicans are divided on the urgency to tackle the climate crisis. The country also disagrees on the subject of ‘jobs versus public health’. Moreover, there is a sharp split on the “mask mandate” which reveals a profound cultural divide.
America is at war with itself. On one side is the sushi crowd: the cosmopolitan urbanites who work in the internet economy, watch SNL and listen to NPR. On the other side is the steak crowd: rural, holding blue-collar jobs, or working in the low paying service sector, who watch ESPN and Fox News. While the former harps on America’s failings, the latter focuses on America’s glory. But they have commonalities as well: both are aggrieved, do not trust the government, and believe that the political, economic, and cultural structures are working against them.
Trump will probably lose the 2020 elections but Trumpism is here to stay (even if Trump decides not to run in 2024). While racism has contributed to the institutionalization of Trumpism, this is a partial story. About one-fourth of non-white voters supported Trump—the highest for any Republican candidate since 1960. His increased vote share among “Latinos” contributed to his victories in Florida and Texas.
In a hard-hitting essay, The Only Middle Finger Available, Rich Lowry suggests that the disaffected masses (of the steak world) consider Trump as the “only viable actor who can take on the elites.” Trump supporters resent cultural condescension of the “experts”. This means that both COVID-19 and climate change, where scientific experts shape the policy discourse, are embroiled in a cultural war. Navigating this treacherous cultural divide is probably the most important political challenge for Biden, should he become the President.
Ideological Divide on Climate Politics
The Edison Research exit poll covered by major media outlets asked whether climate change was a serious problem and 66% of voters replied in the affirmative. On the face of it, this is encouraging. But digging deeper, one finds that 68% of these were Biden voters and only 29% were Trump voters. Of the 32% who did not consider climate change to be a serious problem, 84% were Trump voters. Thus, climate change is mired in the ideological divide.
Historically, the “jobs versus environment” debate posed a roadblock for environmental policy. This issue also plays out in the context of COVID-19. The exit polls show that 51% of voters favored “Containing the coronavirus now, even if it hurts the economy,” while 42% favored “Rebuilding the economy now, even if it hurts efforts to contain the coronavirus.” In the former, 80% voted for Biden, while in the latter, 76% voted for Trump.
What is the Way forward?
Biden has secured over 70 million votes, the highest for any Presidential candidate to date. Yet, no pundit has described this election as a Biden wave. In part, the blame lies with pollsters who provided inaccurate election forecasts (again). One also cannot attribute Biden’s performance to PACs or outside money because Democrats have outspent Republicans by a sizeable margin.
Climate action supporters should recognize that the citizens of the (Divided) States of America seem to have voted for a change, not a revolution. If the Senate remains in Republican control, eliminating filibuster is off the table. While Biden could pursue some climate policies through Executive Orders and Agency action, deep decarbonization will need new legislation. The good news is that several policies enjoy such support including subsidies for renewables (Red states lead in wind energy), subsidies for EV vehicles, R&D in new technologies, and active forest management policies.
Enacting new legislation is a drawn-out process. This means that Democrats need to hold on to the House in the 2022 mid-term elections. This could be challenging because House Republicans have the momentum behind them, having flipped 6 seats in 2020. Further, the midterm elections tend not to favor the President’s party. Biden probably remembers that Democrats lost the House in the 2010 midterm elections after the landslide in 2008.
Biden will face pressure to enact aggressive measures to tackle climate change, aimed primarily at the fossil fuel sector. One strategy is that along with new regulations, he should announce concrete plans to support fossil fuel communities’ transition to new industries. He could work with coal-country Republicans who recognize the need to diversify their economies. West Virginia’s Governor Jim Justice noted in his victory speech that, “We don’t want to ever forget who we really are. We’re a natural resource state. We abound in coal and oil and gas, timber, water. We should be proud. Really proud. But at the same time, we’ve got to diversify.”
Science about climate change is settled, but the politics is not. Biden’s “Build Back Better” approach can reshape climate politics by emphasizing how decarbonization will place American workers at the forefront again. The challenge for Biden will be to develop bipartisan policies that will bridge the political and cultural divide in the country.
