It’s hot in Georgia right now. The National Weather Service-Atlanta office tweeted on Friday that Atlanta “hit a high temperature of 95 degrees or above for 11 consecutive days, ranking 6th all-time.”
On September 12th, Atlanta, Georgia and Macon, Georgia also broke maximum temperature records for the date. The extreme heat was not unique to the South. As my family watched the Oregon-Pittsburgh volleyball match this week, ESPN commentators repeatedly remarked about how hot it was in Fitzgerald Field House on the campus of the University of Pittsburgh. The playing facility did not have air conditioning, and Pittsburgh was in the midst of a 90+ deg F heatwave.
As I watched players struggle with the heat and slippery floors, I reflected on why the facility didn’t have air conditioning. Well Duh! It is Pittsburgh. In mid-September, average high temperatures should be in the upper 70s, climatologically speaking. In that moment, it hit me. Society is not prepared for the “new normals” that we are likely experiencing as our climate changes right before our eyes. More importantly, our past experiences with weather and climate can breed bad decisions in contemporary times.
Hurricane Dorian as seen from the International Space Station
Ok, Dr. Shepherd, where are you going with this commentary? I will circle back to heat in a moment. While speaking with a journalist from South Florida this week, I told her that residents there should throw out personal reference points about past hurricanes when facing storms today. My point was that every hurricane is different, and past experiences with previous storms indicate nothing about how they will fare in a future storm. Scientific studies suggest that more intense hurricanes are likely and that a generation of slowing or stalling storms may be upon us. Additionally, Chris Mooney, writing in the Washington Post, made this point about Hurricane Michael (2018):
On Tuesday morning, Floridians knew a storm was coming but not how strong it would be. As of 5 a.m., Michael was a strong Category 1 hurricane with a minimum pressure of 973 millibars, a measure of atmospheric pressure indicating that air is rising in the storm, pulling winds toward its center. The official forecast took the storm up to mid-Category 3 at landfall. But 24 hours later, Michael was already far stronger: It now had 140 mph winds and a pressure falling sharply. The wind speed increased 45 mph in just 24 hours, representing a leap from Category 1 to Category 4 — and the storm wasn’t done intensifying.
Rapid intensification is emerging as a significant threat with hurricanes. These factors suggest that statements like “Oh, it is a category 1 storm, I have seen this situation before we will be fine” or “We’ve survived that type of storm before, we will again” are misguided and dangerous.
During Hurricane Harvey (2017), I remember some people saying things like “Oh, it floods in Houston all of the time, we are used to it, so we didn’t expect it to be this bad.” However, Harvey was an anomaly event. By its very definition, an anomaly event is different than a normal experience. You probably haven’t experienced an anomaly event before so your personal reference points are useless. My colleague Professor Susan Jasko, a communication expert at California University of Pennsylvania, once told me,
I think it is very difficult for people to truly imagine what they have never known. If you think about how many experiences one has in life where the people who have had the experience tell you, "It will be like X." You nod your head, but when you go through the experience you end up thinking, "Wow, she told me it would be like this, but I just didn't really understand.
This tendency combined with “optimism bias” can lead to very poor decisions. Optimism bias is a cognitive bias that makes people think they are less likely to experience a negative event or outcome. I see this all of the time with people at ballparks during a lightning storm or living in floodplains without flood insurance.
Trends in number of days with heat index of 90 degrees or more from 1979 to 2018
This brings me back to extreme heat. Virtually every credible report published on climate change indicates that extreme heat will continue to be a problem. The graphic above indicates trends in the number of days with a heat index (temperature + humidity) above 90 degrees F from 1979 to 2018. Climate projections expect these trends to accelerate. This means that people, organizations, and our infrastructure will need to adapt. According to the 2018 National Climate Assessment report,
Workers in the agriculture, forestry, hunting, and fishing sectors together with construction and support, waste, and remediation services work are the most highly vulnerable to heat-related deaths in the United States, representing almost 68% of heat-related deaths nationally. Six of the ten states with the highest occupational heat-related deaths in these sectors are in the Southeast region, accounting for 28.6% of occupational heat-related deaths between 2000 and 2010 (see graphic below).
Such data also suggests that sports recreation rules, outdoor labor specifications, and infrastructure will need significant adjustments. For example, a colleague in Madison, Wisconsin shared with me that kids are struggling with the heat this September because most schools have no air conditioning. I am even willing to make an argument that all school buses in warmer climates will require air conditioning as will buildings that didn’t need it within the climate of last century.
I am sure some readers are saying, “Whatever, Dr. Shepherd (complete with eye roll). I grew up playing recreation sports in the heat and I survived.” To me, that is similar to the old school exaggerated stories about “walking to school uphill both ways.” It is romanticization of the past. We live in a new climate normal, and we better adapt quickly.
Projected changes in outdoor work hours in the year 2090 under the most extreme model projections
