Why Is Cold Weather In January So Confusing For Some People?

This week I have seen stories about frozen precipitation (graupel) falling from the sky, and iguanas dropping from trees in South Florida. As strange as both of these things sound, it is not what has me scratching my head this evening. I am baffled by this unrelenting perception held by certain people about cold weather and climate change. Recently, a man posted on my public Facebook page with a snarky remark about global warming being fake. His evidence was simply that he worked outside and that it has been cold. ABC meteorologist Ginger Zee responded on Twitter to similar post in response to a story she shared about recent cold temperatures. I have written a couple of articles explaining why a cold day doesn’t refute climate warming (nor does a hot day confirm it). Many of us have offered up “cutesy” sayings like “Weather is your mood, Climate is your personality” to convey that day-to-day weather doesn’t say anything about broader climate changes. Nothing seems to work. Why is cold weather in January so confusing to some people?

As a reminder, boreal winter happens because the Northern Hemisphere is tilting away from the Sun right now (graphic below). This means that places in the Southern Hemisphere are currently experiencing summer. Because the delicate dance involving Earth’s orbit around the Sun and axial tilt is not going to change anytime soon, here is a little secret. We will always have winter, snowstorms, and cold days even as anthropogenic climate change occurs. The temperature of the Earth’s surface is a complex network of solar energy transmission, absorption, and reflection. As Colorado State University professor Scott Denning often says, “We know there is a Greenhouse Effect because we survive night every daily.” I explained in a previous Forbes article how these processes (not just the Sun alone) contribute to Earth’s radiative processes.

There was another other common misperception within that aforementioned post tagged to my Facebook page. He specifically mentioned that he works outside. However, the last time I checked, it wasn’t called “Where I Work Warming.” It is called global warming. And by the way, don’t be distracted by people that try to use the “they changed the name” myth. This has been debunked numerous times too.

I have increasingly become convinced that a certain segment of the population may never quite grasp that a cold or snowy day doesn’t necessarily say anything about the longer-term climate changes.

The difference between weather and climate is a measure of time. Weather is what conditions of the atmosphere are over a short period of time, and climate is how the atmosphere "behaves" over relatively long periods of time.

People are also biased by perceptions or misunderstandings of things that they have learned over time. You might be surprised at how many people believe that a desert never gets cold. They actually can cool down significantly at night. You might also be surprised at how many people think that “heat lightning” is caused by warm air illuminating the summer sky. The National Weather Service actually provides a good definition of heat lightning at this link.

Beyond climate literacy issues, some people that spew the “it’s cold so no climate warming” myth are already biased in their viewpoint of climate change. As Ginger Zee astutely pointed out, you never see these people post affirming climate change during a 100+ degree heatwave or an abnormal warm stretch in December. The same cautions hold about drawing conclusions on the warm side of the ledger. However, the logic used by the “cold day” contrarian should apply to hot days too, right? Climate change is revealing itself through long-term trends, changes to the landscape, and modifications to certain weather events. There is no reason for anyone to use a single day or week as evidence.

I was sufficiently curious about whether established cognitive biases can explain this phenomenon. These two biases, cited directly from the Yourbias.is website, are close candidates:

• Belief bias - “If a conclusion supports your existing beliefs, you'll rationalize anything that supports it.”
• The availability heuristic - “Your judgments are influenced by what springs most easily to mind.”

Belief bias may explain why a person doesn’t recognize how ridiculous it is to arrive at a conclusion about global climate change based on a cold day or week in Anywhere, U.S.A. The availability heuristic explains why the immediate sensation of “cold” may override broader thoughts of climate warming.

What amuses me is that extreme cold events have been on the decline according to studies. When they do happen, it is actually “breaking news” even though I am thinking, “yep this is what winter used to be like.”