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Drought, Heat And Nuclear – Gavin Newsom’s Elephant In The Room

This article is more than 2 years old.

Just this last Friday, in the face of continued and worsening drought and heat, California Governor Gavin Newsom proclaimed a State of Emergency and issued an Emergency Proclamation Regarding California Electricity.

While this proclamation mentions zero-carbon twice, something that does not address the actual situation at all, it does not mention nuclear power anywhere, something that does directly help. Nuclear power is the most resistant source of energy to extreme weather, including droughts and heatwaves.

Unfortunately, Newsom has led a political crusade to close California’s only remaining nuclear power plant – Diablo Canyon. Even though the plant is working perfectly, desalinates seawater for its own water supply, and produces more carbon-free energy than all of California’s wind farms put together.

The approximate 6,000 MW of California wind, with an average capacity factor of 30%, produces less than 15 billion kWh/yr. The 2,280 MW of the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Plant, with an average capacity factor of 90%, produces 18 billion kWh/yr, year in and year out, regardless of weather.

Whenever Newsom discusses energy in terms of MW, he fails to factor in capacity factor. The average capacity factor of California’s utility-scale solar is about 29%, just about the same as its wind farms.

So when Newsom declares a shortfall of 5,000 MW, he really means about 3,000 MW effective or 20 billion kWh/yr, about what 5,000 MW of natural gas would produce given its 58% capacity factor in California. 20 billion kWh/yr requires about 9,000 MW of wind, 9,000 MW of solar, 5,000 MW of natural gas as mentioned, 7,000 MW of hydro, but only 2,500 MW of nuclear.

Thus, the hidden misdirection when discussing energy – few discuss what’s actually produced. It makes renewables look better than they are, and nuclear less than it is.

In Newsom’s proclamation, there are several relevant paragraphs that make clear what needs to be done, three in particular:

“WHEREAS in July 2021, the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) sought additional resources for summer 2021 through its Capacity Procurement Mechanism but sufficient resources were not available to make up for the projected shortfall”

 “WHEREAS it is necessary to take immediate action to reduce the strain on the energy infrastructure, increase energy capacity, and make energy supply more resilient this year to protect the health and safety of Californians”

 “WHEREAS it is already too late, under normal procedures, to bring additional sources of energy online in time to address the previously unforeseen shortfall of up to 5,000 MW that is now projected for the summer of 2022 given the now-apparent likelihood that trends of drought, wildfire, and heatwaves continue into next year, making it necessary to take further action immediately”

There are other WHEREAS’s that say similar things and point to one obvious short and long-term solution - California needs to reverse its pressure on PG&E to voluntarily close Diablo Canyon Nuclear Plant since it produces almost exactly this shortfall. It is also highly likely that there will continue to be shortfalls of up to 5,000 MW through 2025 and probably well beyond, double that if Diablo Canyon is forced to close.

Diablo Canyon has been rated safe by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and could run well beyond 2040. Closing it in the face of this crisis is maliciously foolish. Claiming a penny a kWh is too much to pay is hypocritical when compared to the subsidies for renewables and the claim that decarbonization is essential. California’s decarbonization plan has already cost the state several cents per kWh, as electricity prices jumped to over 18¢/kWh this year, 75% more than the United States as a whole.

And that price is expected to more than double in just the next 10 years, according to the California Public Utility Commission. Diablo Canyon’s costs would not change appreciably in that time, so it’s disingenuous to say it’s not economic to run just because gas was cheaper two years ago.

The irony is California’s grid is no better off now than when the renewable push began. Worse, in fact. They have to pay natural gas plants to run idle, just to be ready to fire up when the sun goes down or the wind stops blowing.

And as the Breakthrough Institute points out, the state has been giving waivers of the once-through cooling rule to gas plants, but refused to give the same ones to Diablo Canyon, even though these gas plants cause more damage and pollution than Diablo Canyon ever could.

California is flailing about trying to get electricity from other states, like from here in Washington State, where they’ve been getting some of our abundant hydro for years. Unfortunately, we’re having our own reliability problems in the face of this extreme heat and the shutting of coal plants in the region. In ten years, the entire West will have real problems with reliable energy since wind and solar are assumed to be the only sources that will grow significantly to meet increasing demand.

Instead of admitting he’s been wrong on nuclear, Newsome recommends on page 7 of the Proclamation that ships berthed in California ports use their auxiliary engines instead of shore power.

Wow, that might save 20 MW!

But the proclamation really promotes natural gas as the short-term solution, the solution that so many states are embracing, blindly thinking that emplacing natural gas during emergencies won’t change their decarbonization plans. The problem is, whenever you build gas, you lock gas in for that site for at least 40 years, well beyond the 2050 drop-dead deadline for decarbonizing our society.

Newsom has gotten a lot of political mileage in California out of being anti-nuke. It’s time he embraces science again, understands that global emissions are still rising, and listens to the leading climate scientists who say we need to stop closing nuclear plants, and build new ones, to replace fossil fuels.

We can’t do it without them.

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